Part 1
Some fear it. Some have yet to experience its horror.
In a campaign from bygone days, my group had a good laugh when a rotten tree fell on a level 0 npc and dealt over 50 damage to him. He didn’t make it. Dubbed the tree bomb; to this day we often joke about how wilderness traps only appear at level 5. No one is ever truly safe. But this begs the question:
How many adventurers die from tree bombs every year?
Factors
Likelyhood of an Adventurer to be any given Level
· Distribution of players by level
We can assume the distribution of adventurers based on experience thresholds. For example, there are twice as many level 1 fighters as there are level 2 fighters. Therefore, 50% of all (adventurer) fighters are level 1. Because we can’t know the distribution of Player classes without large-scale polling, I will assume all characters need 2000 exp to achieve level 2 as it’s a median value, and fighter is the most popular class (anecdotal but easily true). Exp thresholds cannot be grouped by hit die because they vary too widely (thief-mage for example). I am not using the ACKs demographic table because it accounts for all people in the world, most of whom are not ambitious adventurers. Keep in mind that ACKs exp thresholds are rounded at higher levels.
o 816 1st Level - 50.0%
o 408 2nd Level - 25.0%
o 204 3rd Level - 12.5%
o 102 4th Level - 6.25%
o 51 5th Level - 3.12%
o 26 6th Level - 1.59%
o 13 7th Level - 0.79%
o 6.3 8th Level - 0.38%
o 3.3 9th Level - 0.20%
o 2.2 10th Level - 0.13%
o 1.7 11th Level - 0.10%
o 1.4 12th Level - 0.09%
o 1.2 13th Level - 0.07%
o 1 14th Level - 0.06%
· Number of Henchmen Retained by Level
o 408 1st Level x 25% = 102 + 8*50% = 170 x4 = 680
o 204 2nd Level x 50% = 102 + 8*30% = 102 x4 = 408
o 102 3rd Level x 75% = 76 + 8*10% = 34 x4 = 136
o 51 4th Level + 8*10% = 34 x4 = 136
o 26 5th Level x 80.0% = 21 x4 = 84
o 13 6th Level - 5 = 8 x 83.4% = 7 x4 = 28
o 6.3 7th Level - 1 = 5.3 x 85.7% = 4.5 x4 = 18
o 3.3 8th Level - 0.75 = 2.5 x 87.5% = 2.2 x4 = 8.8
o 2.2 9th Level - 0.25 = 1.9 x 88.9% = 1.7 x4 = 6.8
o 1.7 10th Level - 0.20 = 1.5 x 90.0% = 1.35 x4 = 5.4
o 1.4 11th Level - 0.15 = 1.25 x 90.9% = 1.13 x4 = 4.52
o 1.2 12th Level - 0.11 = 1.09 x 91.7% = 1.09 x4 = 4.36
o 1 13th Level - 0.00 = 1.00 x 92.3% = 0.92 x4 = 3.68
o 0 14th Level = 0 x4 = 0
Since henchmen must be lower level than the PC (except in negligible, odd cases) and they receive half exp rate, we can simply shift the chart. I have arbitrarily decided that players on average will build up to their max henchmen (average 4) between levels 2-5. I have also arbitrarily decided that Player Proficiencies and CHA scores that grant additional henchmen, and negative CHA scores and leaving henchmen in civilization all cancel out. Again, these aspects are all more or less up to Player choice and cannot be calculated. Therefore, only 25% of the initial pool of 1st level henchmen will be in an adventuring party: level 2 PCs have not hired the rest of them yet!
Since a henchman is lower level than his master, I argue the %change in their pool of hit die is how much more likely they are to meet their doom. After all, adventurers are always fighting bigger and badder monsters as they level up. For example, a level 6 fighter might have 4 level 5 henchmen. Because of the difference in their hit dice, you could say his henchmen are 20% more likely to die (or retire) on any given adventure. This means he will have to hire another henchman if one of them dies and he survives (a likely scenario). However, level 5 henchmen are not available on the market. So, he will have to hire a henchman between level 1-4. We can extrapolate that this difference must be removed from higher level henchmen populations—sequentially—and distributed among the first 4 levels at market availability (50%, 30%, 10%, 10%). Because henchman also die and are rehired during levels 1-4, the distribution here will approach market rates.
· Total adventurer distribution by level
o 1496 1st Level = 47.34%
o 816 2nd Level = 25.82%
o 340 3rd Level = 10.76%
o 238 4th Level = 7.531%
o 135 5th Level = 4.271%
o 54 6th Level = 1.709%
o 31 7th Level = 0.981%
o 15 8th Level = 0.478%
o 10 9th Level = 0.320%
o 7.6 10th Level = 0.240%
o 6.2 11th Level = 0.197%
o 5.4 12th Level = 0.171%
o 4.8 13th Level = 0.154%
o 1 14th Level = 0.032%
We can see that adding henchmen into the equation doesn’t really do anything except slightly push out the center of the curve, where players are slightly more willing and able to hire henchmen, and because they will hire higher level henchmen before lower.
Distribution of Hit Die across Population
· Henchmen Rarity
§ Ubiquitous (x1)
· Explorer – d6
· Fighter – d8
§ Common (x.5)
· Crusader – d6
· Mage – d4
· Thief – d4
· Venturer – d6
§ Uncommon (x.25)
· Assassin – d6
· Bard – d4
· Bladedancer – d6
· Priestess – d4
§ Rare (x.15)
· Barbarian – d8
· Shaman – d6
· Warlock – d4
§ Very Rare (x.07)
· Craftpriest – d6
· Vaultguard – d8
· Paladin – d8
· Witch – d4
§ Extremely Rare (x.02)
· Nightblade – d6
· Spellsword – d6
· Ruinguard – d6
§ Legendary (x.01)
· Wonderworker – d4
· Population by Hit Die
o d8 – 1.29 (22.24%) = 702.78
§ 1st Level = 332.7
§ 2nd Level = 181.5
§ 3rd Level = 75.62
§ 4th Level = 52.93
§ 5th Level = 30.02
§ 6th Level = 12.01
§ 7th Level = 6.894
§ 8th Level = 3.359
§ 9th Level = 2.249
§ 10th Level = 1.687
§ 11th Level = 1.384
§ 12th Level = 1.202
§ 13th Level = 1.082
§ 14th Level = 0.225
o d6 – 2.78 (47.93%) = 1514.59
§ 1st Level = 717.0
§ 2nd Level = 391.1
§ 3rd Level = 163.0
§ 4th Level = 114.1
§ 5th Level = 64.69
§ 6th Level = 25.88
§ 7th Level = 14.86
§ 8th Level = 7.240
§ 9th Level = 4.847
§ 10th Level = 3.635
§ 11th Level = 2.984
§ 12th Level = 2.590
§ 13th Level = 2.332
§ 14th Level = 0.485
o d4 – 1.73 (29.83%) = 942.63
§ 1st Level = 446.2
§ 2nd Level = 243.4
§ 3rd Level = 101.4
§ 4th Level = 70.99
§ 5th Level = 40.26
§ 6th Level = 16.11
§ 7th Level = 9.247
§ 8th Level = 4.506
§ 9th Level = 3.016
§ 10th Level = 2.262
§ 11th Level = 1.857
§ 12th Level = 1.612
§ 13th Level = 1.452
§ 14th Level = 0.302
Distribution is based on the market rarity table. I have decided to use this data to estimate player class distribution as well, because it is very similar to the basic spread of HD you see with the 6 core classes. Additionally, classes like Fighter are just as ‘Ubiquitous’ outside of the simulation as within.
What is the average adventurer’s HP?
Scores calculated assuming the 5d6 drop 2 rules. I do not assume the practice of rolling 5 characters and choosing the most favorable because that is up to player choice. I also do not assume that higher level characters are more likely to have higher CON via Darwinism and objects of Magical Research, because I do not know how to factor that in. I do assume that any score is equally likely to be the 5d6 and so on. The average bonus on 3d6 will be exactly zero, but I will calculate the individual values anyway for reference.
· CON bonus
o 5d6 drop 2 = Average 13.43
§ Weight = 1/6
§ Chance of 3 (-3) = 0.01%
§ Chance of 5- (-2) = 0.27%
§ Chance of 8- (-1) = 4.14%
§ Chance of no bonus = 29.73%
§ Chance of 13+ (+1) = 66.13%
§ Chance of 16+ (+2 = 23.42%
§ Chance of 18+ (+3) = 3.55%
o 4d6 drop 1 = Average 12.24
§ Weight = 2/6
§ Chance of 3 (-3) = 0.08%
§ Chance of 5- (-2) = 1.16%
§ Chance of 8- (-1) = 10.49%
§ Chance of no bonus = 40.74%
§ Chance of 13+ (+1) = 48.77%
§ Chance of 16+ (+2) = 13.04%
§ Chance of 18+ (+3) = 1.62%
o 3d6 drop 0 = Average 10.50
§ Weight = 3/6
§ Chance of 3 (-3) = 0.46%
§ Chance of 5- (-2) = 4.63%
§ Chance of 8- (-1) = 25.93%
§ Chance of no bonus = 48.15%
§ Chance of 13+ (+1) = 25.93%
§ Chance of 16+ (+2) = 4.63%
§ Chance of 18+ (+3) = 0.46%
o Total Odds
§ Chance of 3 (-3) = 0.26%
§ Chance of 5- (-2) = 2.75%
§ Chance of 8- (-1) = 16.46%
§ Chance of no bonus = 42.61%
§ Chance of 13+ (+1) = 48.77%
§ Chance of 16+ (+2) = 13.04%
§ Chance of 18+ (+3) = 1.62%
o Total Exclusive Odds by Bracket
§ Chance of 3 (-3) = 0.08%
§ Chance of 4-5 (-2) = 1.08%
§ Chance of 6-8 (-1) = 9.34%
§ Chance of 9-12 (0) = 40.74%
§ Chance of 13-15 (+1) = 35.73%
§ Chance of 16-17 (+2) = 11.42%
§ Chance of 18 (+3) = 1.62%
· Average attribute (CON) bonus = +0.52 HP per Hit Die
An interesting discovery here is that after weighting each category, the total odds are identical to that of 4d6 odds.
· Average HP at any given level
HP is calculated using ACKs II’s reroll model, in which the character rerolls his hit dice every level and compares it to their previous HP total (before CON bonus). The greater value is kept; if the old value is greater, you gain +1 temporary HP for that level only. Reminder: Humans have a maximum of 9 hit die, after which they gain +2 per level. They do still reroll their hit dice after level 9. Level 1 characters have a minimum base HP of 4.
This is a completely insane thing to calculate, so instead I had Grok perform a Monte Carlo simulation with the parameters above. It is broken down into each hit die category which cannot be combined due to the math on rerolling every level. This will also help resist introducing a large bias later on when we get to the bomb.
· d8 Average HP by Level
o 1st Level = 4.500 + 0.52 CON = 5.200 HP
o 2nd Level = 10.00 + 1.04 CON = 11.04 HP
o 3rd Level = 15.07 + 1.56 CON = 16.63 HP
o 4th Level = 19.95 + 2.08 CON = 22.03 HP
o 5th Level = 24.70 + 2.60 CON = 27.30 HP
o 6th Level = 29.35 + 3.12 CON = 32.47 HP
o 7th Level = 33.92 + 3.64 CON = 37.56 HP
o 8th Level = 38.42 + 4.16 CON = 42.58 HP
o 9th Level = 42.86 + 4.68 CON = 47.54 HP
o 10th Level = 47.23 + 4.68 CON = 51.91 HP
o 11th Level = 51.48 + 4.68 CON = 56.16 HP
o 12th Level = 55.62 + 4.68 CON = 60.30 HP
o 13th Level = 59.68 + 4.68 CON = 64.36 HP
o 14th Level = 63.65 + 4.68 CON = 68.33 HP
· d6 Average HP by Level
o 1st Level = 4.000 + 0.52 CON = 4.520 HP
o 2nd Level = 7.750 + 1.04 CON = 8.790 HP
o 3rd Level = 11.66 + 1.56 CON = 13.22 HP
o 4th Level = 15.40 + 2.08 CON = 17.48 HP
o 5th Level = 19.03 + 2.60 CON = 21.63 HP
o 6th Level = 22.57 + 3.12 CON = 25.69 HP
o 7th Level = 26.04 + 3.64 CON = 29.68 HP
o 8th Level = 29.45 + 4.16 CON = 33.61 HP
o 9th Level = 32.80 + 4.68 CON = 37.48 HP
o 10th Level = 36.07 + 4.68 CON = 40.75 HP
o 11th Level = 39.25 + 4.68 CON = 43.93 HP
o 12th Level = 42.36 + 4.68 CON = 47.04 HP
o 13th Level = 45.40 + 4.68 CON = 50.08 HP
o 14th Level = 48.38 + 4.68 CON = 53.06 HP
· d4 Average HP by Level
o 1st Level = 4.000 + 0.52 CON = 4.520 HP
o 2nd Level = 5.500 + 1.04 CON = 6.540 HP
o 3rd Level = 8.250 + 1.56 CON = 9.810 HP
o 4th Level = 10.88 + 2.08 CON = 12.96 HP
o 5th Level = 13.43 + 2.60 CON = 16.03 HP
o 6th Level = 15.91 + 3.12 CON = 19.03 HP
o 7th Level = 18.34 + 3.64 CON = 21.98 HP
o 8th Level = 20.72 + 4.16 CON = 24.88 HP
o 9th Level = 23.06 + 4.68 CON = 27.74 HP
o 10th Level = 25.34 + 4.68 CON = 30.02 HP
o 11th Level = 27.57 + 4.68 CON = 32.25 HP
o 12th Level = 29.75 + 4.68 CON = 34.43 HP
o 13th Level = 31.89 + 4.68 CON = 36.57 HP
o 14th Level = 34.00 + 4.68 CON = 38.68 HP
What is the average damage of a Rotten Tree?
The power of a RTT is defined on JJ page 241 as 7d8 damage; 1’ knockback per point of damage; 1d6 additional damage per 10’ if impacting object. I am choosing to interpret this as +1d6 per 10 points of damage because the force of your body flying through the air will not steadily increase over distance. Furthermore, in a locale where rotten trees are encounterable, you will be impacting something.
· Average damage of 7d8 = 31.5
· Average groups of 10 damage ~= 2.7
o Side note: why is this value not average damage/10 you ask? If you take every permutation of 7d8 and divide by 10 and disregard the remainder, you get 2.7 on average.
· Average damage of 1d6 = 3.5
· Max damage = 86
· Min damage = 7
· Average expected damage = 40.95
· Damage in terms of Estimated Casualty Rate: 
· Estimated Casualty Rate in terms of Damage: 
We can assume very roughly that about 50% of adventurers with 40 HP will be reduced to 0 by the bomb, because damage could easily vary 1 point in either direction at this point on the curve. We also know the max and min damage possible. In other words, if an adventurer has 7 HP he will be reduced to zero 100% of the time, and if he has 87 HP he will be reduced to zero 0% of the time. Therefore, we just need a function that passes through these three points (0, 87) (50,40) and (100, 7) and then invert it to estimate any casualty rate for a given HP value.
What % of adventurers will pass the saving throw?
Fortunately for the humble Thief, he takes no damage from a RTT assuming he succeeds on his saving throw. Unfortunately for the brave Thief, I have averaged him in with the Mage he has the privilege of sharing the d4 hit die with. Good luck, it’s save or suck on this one!
· Average d8 HD Blast Save Failure Rate by Level
o 1st Level = 15+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 14.48 = 67.4%
o 2nd Level = 14+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 13.48 = 62.4%
o 3rd Level = 14+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 13.48 = 62.4%
o 4th Level = 13+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 12.48 = 57.4%
o 5th Level = 12+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 11.48 = 52.4%
o 6th Level = 12+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 11.48 = 52.4%
o 7th Level = 11+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 10.48 = 47.4%
o 8th Level = 10+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 9.48 = 42.4%
o 9th Level = 10+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 9.48 = 42.4%
o 10th Level = 9+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 8.48 = 37.4%
o 11th Level = 8+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 7.48 = 32.4%
o 12th Level = 8+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 7.48 = 32.4%
o 13th Level = 7+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 6.48 = 27.4%
o 14th Level = 6+ − 0.52 (WIL) = 5.48 = 22.4%
· Average d6 HD Blast Save Failure Rate by Level
o 1st Level = 13+,15+,16+ = 14.66 − 0.52 = 14.14 = 65.7%
o 2nd Level = 13+,14+,16+ = 14.33 − 0.52 = 13.81 = 64.0%
o 3rd Level = 12+,14+,15+ = 13.66 − 0.52 = 13.14 = 60.7%
o 4th Level = 12+,13+,15+ = 13.33 − 0.52 = 12.81 = 59.0%
o 5th Level = 11+,12+,14+ = 12.33 − 0.52 = 11.81 = 54.0%
o 6th Level = 11+,12+,14+ = 12.33 − 0.52 = 11.81 = 54.0%
o 7th Level = 10+,11+,13+ = 11.33 − 0.52 = 10.81 = 49.0%
o 8th Level = 10+,10+,13+ = 11 − 0.52 = 10.48 = 47.4%
o 9th Level = 9+,10+,12+ = 10.33 − 0.52 = 9.81 = 44.0%
o 10th Level = 9+,9+,12+ = 10 − 0.52 = 9.48 = 42.4%
o 11th Level = 8+,8+,11+ = 9 − 0.52 = 8.48 = 37.4%
o 12th Level = 8+,8+,11+ = 9 − 0.52 = 8.48 = 37.4%
o 13th Level = 7+,7+,10+ = 8 − 0.52 = 7.48 = 32.4%
o 14th Level = 7+,6+,10+ = 7.66 − 0.52 = 7.14 = 30.7%
· Average d4 HD Blast Save Failure Rate by Level
o 1st Level = 13+,15+,15+,16+ = 14.5 − 0.52 = 13.98 = 64.9%
o 2nd Level = 13+,14+,15+,16+ = 14.33 − 0.52 = 13.81 = 64.0%
o 3rd Level = 12+,14+,15+,15+ = 13.833 − 0.52 = 13.31 = 61.6%
o 4th Level = 12+,13+,14+,15+ = 13.33 − 0.52 = 12.81 = 59.0%
o 5th Level = 11+,12+,14+,14+ = 12.66 − 0.52 = 12.14 = 55.7%
o 6th Level = 11+,12+,14+,14+ = 12.66 − 0.52 = 12.14 = 55.7%
o 7th Level = 10+,11+,13+,13+ = 11.66 − 0.52 = 11.14 = 55.7%
o 8th Level = 10+,10+,13+,13+ = 11.5 − 0.52 = 10.98 = 49.9%
o 9th Level = 9+,10+,13+,12+ = 11 − 0.52 = 10.48 = 47.4%
o 10th Level = 9+,9+,12+,12+ = 10.5 − 0.52 = 9.98 = 44.9%
o 11th Level = 8+,8+,12+,11+ = 9.833 − 0.52 = 9.31 = 41.6%
o 12th Level = 8+,8+,12+,11+ = 9.833 − 0.52 = 9.31 = 41.6%
o 13th Level = 7+,7+,11+,10+ = 8.833 − 0.52 = 8.31 = 36.6%
o 14th Level = 7+,6+,11+,10+ = 8.66 − 0.52 = 8.14 = 35.7%
The beauty of the d8 vs. the wrinkle-math of the d4.
Thief and Mage progression weighted 2x in d4. Failure rate is calculated with -1 to final score to represent ‘meet or beat’ with decimal points when target numbers would normally be integer values. For example, an adventurer with a Blast Target of 11 has a 50% chance of failure because 1-10 constitutes a failure.
What % of adventurers will be set to 0 or below?
· True d8 HD Casualty Rate
o 1st Level = 67.4% x 100.0% = 67.40%
o 2nd Level = 62.4% x 92.53% = 57.74%
o 3rd Level = 62.4% x 83.31% = 51.99%
o 4th Level = 57.4% x 74.58% = 42.81%
o 5th Level = 52.4% x 66.87% = 35.04%
o 6th Level = 52.4% x 59.74% = 31.30%
o 7th Level = 47.4% x 53.08% = 25.16%
o 8th Level = 42.4% x 46.81% = 19.85%
o 9th Level = 42.4% x 40.87% = 17.33%
o 10th Level = 37.4% x 35.82% = 13.40%
o 11th Level = 32.4% x 31.06% = 10.06%
o 12th Level = 32.4% x 26.55% = 8.602%
o 13th Level = 27.4% x 22.25% = 6.096%
o 14th Level = 22.4% x 18.14% = 4.063%
· True d6 HD Casualty Rate
o 1st Level = 65.7% x 100.0% = 65.70%
o 2nd Level = 64.0% x 96.62% = 61.84%
o 3rd Level = 60.7% x 88.72% = 53.85%
o 4th Level = 59.0% x 81.66% = 48.18%
o 5th Level = 54.0% x 75.18% = 40.60%
o 6th Level = 54.0% x 69.17% = 37.35%
o 7th Level = 49.0% x 63.54% = 31.13%
o 8th Level = 47.4% x 58.22% = 27.60%
o 9th Level = 44.0% x 53.18% = 23.40%
o 10th Level = 42.4% x 49.06% = 20.80%
o 11th Level = 37.4% x 45.17% = 16.89%
o 12th Level = 37.4% x 41.46% = 15.51%
o 13th Level = 32.4% x 37.91% = 12.28%
o 14th Level = 30.7% x 34.51% = 10.59%
· True d4 HD Casualty Rate
o 1st Level = 64.9% x 100.0% = 64.90%
o 2nd Level = 64.0% x 100.0% = 64.00%
o 3rd Level = 61.6% x 94.74% = 58.36%
o 4th Level = 59.0% x 89.17% = 52.61%
o 5th Level = 55.7% x 84.01% = 46.79%
o 6th Level = 55.7% x 79.20% = 44.11%
o 7th Level = 55.7% x 74.65% = 41.58%
o 8th Level = 49.9% x 70.35% = 35.10%
o 9th Level = 47.4% x 66.25% = 31.40%
o 10th Level = 44.9% x 63.07% = 28.32%
o 11th Level = 41.6% x 60.04% = 24.98%
o 12th Level = 41.6% x 57.14% = 23.77%
o 13th Level = 32.4% x 57.14% = 18.51%
o 14th Level = 30.7% x 51.66% = 15.86%
· Casualty Rate by Level
o 1st Level = 65.67%
o 2nd Level = 61.19%
o 3rd Level = 54.73%
o 4th Level = 47.87%
o 5th Level = 40.81%
o 6th Level = 37.59%
o 7th Level = 32.62%
o 8th Level = 27.52%
o 9th Level = 24.04%
o 10th Level = 20.84%
o 11th Level = 17.31%
o 12th Level = 15.96%
o 13th Level = 12.30%
o 14th Level = 10.73%
· d8 Relative Casualties
o 1st Level = 332.7 - 224.2
o 2nd Level = 181.5 - 104.8
o 3rd Level = 75.62 - 39.31
o 4th Level = 52.93 - 22.66
o 5th Level = 30.02 - 10.52
o 6th Level = 12.01 - 3.759
o 7th Level = 6.894 - 1.734
o 8th Level = 3.359 - 0.666
o 9th Level = 2.249 - 0.390
o 10th Level = 1.687 - 0.226
o 11th Level = 1.384 - 0.139
o 12th Level = 1.202 - 0.103
o 13th Level = 1.082 - 0.066
o 14th Level = 0.225 - 0.009
o Total = 408.6
o Average Rate = 58.14%
· d6 Relative Casualties
o 1st Level = 717.0 - 471.1
o 2nd Level = 391.1 - 241.9
o 3rd Level = 163.0 - 87.78
o 4th Level = 114.1 - 54.97
o 5th Level = 64.69 - 26.26
o 6th Level = 25.88 - 9.666
o 7th Level = 14.86 - 4.626
o 8th Level = 7.240 - 1.998
o 9th Level = 4.847 - 1.134
o 10th Level = 3.635 - 0.756
o 11th Level = 2.984 - 0.504
o 12th Level = 2.590 - 0.402
o 13th Level = 2.332 - 0.286
o 14th Level = 0.485 - 0.051
o Total = 901.4
o Average Rate = 59.51%
· d4 Relative Casualties
o 1st Level = 446.2 - 289.6
o 2nd Level = 243.4 - 155.8
o 3rd Level = 101.4 - 59.18
o 4th Level = 70.99 - 37.35
o 5th Level = 40.26 - 18.84
o 6th Level = 16.11 - 7.106
o 7th Level = 9.247 - 3.845
o 8th Level = 4.506 - 1.582
o 9th Level = 3.016 - 0.947
o 10th Level = 2.262 - 0.641
o 11th Level = 1.857 - 0.464
o 12th Level = 1.612 - 0.383
o 13th Level = 1.452 - 0.269
o 14th Level = 0.302 - 0.048
o Total = 576.0
o Average Rate = 61.10%
· Total Average Casualty Rate
o 1886 / 3160 = 59.68%
Casualty rate by HD is the failure rate of the Blast Save multiplied by the pure Casualty rate based on HP. This is derived from plugging the appropriate HP value into D (damage) in our Casualty rate equation.
The total average rate is based on our population of 3160 adventurers per 1 14th level adventurer. Of these individuals, 1886 of them are projected to be sent to 0 HP or below.
Part 2
- Chance of encountering a tree bomb
- Average time spent on wilderness adventures per week
- Average party speed (and evasion)
- Available Healing
- Distance from Civilization
- Incentive to be on a wilderness adventure
- Total number of adventurers on a wilderness adventure per week